What Is The Average Hand For A Blackjack Dealer?

• The probability of the dealer busting impacts the average hand for a blackjack dealer. But, removing this and focusing on the dealer’s up card can help players’ strategy knowing what the dealer could average without going over.

LAS VEGAS – Dealers face strict rules when it comes to blackjack, so playing against the average hand of a blackjack dealer can work in your favor. In most cases, you're hoping the dealer stays on 17 or busts. But there's a lot more to these numbers than taking them at face value.

The biggest issue comes from the average spiking due to the dealer's hand being anywhere from 22-26, which in reality represent the same value - a bust. Removing these situations, we find that the average hand for a blackjack dealer is 18.1 when they stay in the game. Still, the average can be better represented by the dealer's up card.

The Average Dealer Blackjack Hand By Up Card

Playing Against The Average Dealer's Hand In Blackjack

Knowing where you sit in legal online blackjack can make the game much easier. The biggest trends to take away from this chart are based on edges and advantages.

• A player receiving a hand of 17 is at a major disadvantage, relying on a push or a dealer bust if they don't hit. Still, blackjack strategy says to stay here, as hitting on 17 comes with a 69% chance to bust.
• Getting dealt an 18 is a pretty weak position despite being favored against 7/13 upcard options. At the advantage when seeing a 2-7 in front of the dealer, the player has a much stronger hand when the dealer is showing a 4, 5, 6 or 7. But, don't be surprised if a dealer showing a 2 finds a way to win. Take advantage when you can split cards in blackjack or hit on soft 18s.
• If a player has a 19 dealt, life is great for this underrated hand. By the numbers, a 9 beats everything except a Face or Ace. But, here's the kicker. If a dealer with a Face or Ace checks for blackjack, you don’t surrender, and they don’t have it, the 19 has the edge against the averages. This is because the blackjack dealer's hand average drops to 18.7 (Face) or 18.3 (Ace).
• A 20 is where you want to be aside from 21. Nothing to do here but hope the dealer doesn't find a way to sneak in.

Keeping The Bust Possibility

The average dealer hand is closer to 20.5 when the possibilities of 22-26 are reentered into the averages. This is better seen when looking at the probability of landing on a certain number based on blackjack dealer rules and regular gameplay.

Breaking Down This Dealer Average

While this way presents a different number, it still provides us with excellent insight into why blackjack systems and strategies are the way they are.

• A dealer only has about a 29% chance of busting in blackjack regardless of their up card. This inflates to a 42% chance if the dealer is showing a 5 or 6 though.
• These numbers represent a multi-deck blackjack setup. They will fluctuate based on the type of blackjack variation you’re playing.